On Thursday 24th September, from 10.30am, the Seismic Hazard Center (CPS) of theIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), within the framework of the activities dedicated to short-term seismic hazard, organized a seminar entitled “Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Methods, Real-World Uses, and Communication Challenges”. The event will be held at the Conference room of the INGV headquarters in Rome and will also be accessible via the Google Meet platform via a link.
The keynote speaker will be the Dr. Max Schneider, statistical consultant and former Research Statistician for the US Geological Survey (USGSThe meeting aims to explore the frontiers of short-term probabilistic earthquake estimation. Although current science does not allow us to predict individual tremors with an exact date and time, statistical models now allow us to assess the probability of clusters of events.
Max Schneider will analyze how these models are applied in global contexts, comparing the methodologies adopted by the USGS, the INGV Seismic Hazard Center, and other international organizations. Key points of the discussion will include the empirical validation of earthquake and aftershock models and the identification of potential areas for future methodological research. Significant attention will be given to applications in real-world emergency management, supporting strategic planning during the preparation, response, and subsequent recovery phases of seismic events. An innovative contribution will focus on ways to communicate complex, rapidly evolving information, often characterized by a low probability of occurrence and high uncertainty, to the public and authorities. To overcome these challenges, the research combines cognitive and psychological sciences, data visualization, and user-centered design.
Dr. Max Schneider worked as a Research Statistician on the Operational Aftershock Forecasting team at the USGS. He holds a PhD in Statistics from the University of Washington and a Master of Science in Mathematics from the University of Potsdam, Germany.
The seminar represents a crucial moment of professional development for the international scientific community.
It will be possible to follow the seminar by clicking here.
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