The paper by Taroni, Petrillo, & Lippiello (2025) in Seismological Research Letters demonstrates that strong earthquake size distributions are the same for both background (spontaneous) and triggered (aftershock-like) events globally, suggesting the b-value reflects inherent fault properties rather than the triggering mechanism, using a global catalog and declustering methods. This finding, published with DOI 10.1785/0220240481, implies that the Gutenberg-Richter law parameter (b-value) is a stable indicator of crustal material or fault structure, applicable across different seismic contexts, which has significant implications for forecasting.
Keywords: b-value; Gutenberg–Richter Law; Background Seismicity; Triggered Events; Declustering; Fault Properties; Global Catalog Analysis; Earthquake Forecasting.
Citation: Taroni, M., Petrillo, G., & Lippiello, E. (2025). Earthquake Size Distributions of Strong Worldwide Seismicity Are Similar for Background and Triggered Events. Seismological Research Letters.
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Title: A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes
The paper introduces a "physics-informed" stochastic model designed to capture long-term correlations in global seismicity. While traditional models often treat large earthquakes as independent events, this research suggests a deeper temporal connection.
Keywords: Long-Term Correlation; Physics-Informed Modeling; Clustering Behavior.
Citation: Barani, S., Taroni, M., Zaccagnino, D., Artale Harris, P., & Petrillo, G. (2025). A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 674.
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In this paper, Taroni investigates the long-standing debate regarding the tail of the earthquake size distribution. By analyzing updated global seismic catalogs, the author confirms that the Gutenberg-Richter law (the exponential distribution of magnitudes) remains the most accurate model for describing seismicity, even for the largest events. The study demonstrates that there is no statistically significant evidence to reject the exponentiality of magnitudes in favor of other models (such as tapered or truncated distributions). This reinforces the role of the b-value as a fundamental and stable parameter in statistical seismology.
Keywords: Gutenberg–Richter law; Exponential distribution; b-value stability; Statistical seismology; Magnitude tail; Model selection; Global seismic catalogs; Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD).
Citation: Taroni, M. (2025). The Gutenberg–Richter law strikes back: the exponentiality of magnitudes is confirmed by worldwide seismicity. Geophysical Journal International, 243(2), ggaf366.
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